CORONAVIRUS IMPACT ON INDIAN ECONOMY [Blog 152]

The overall Indian economy has come to a pause as the nation realises the epidemic of fatal disease COVID-19. The major hit areas contains tourism, transportation, hospitality, and aviation areas.
The hospitality sector is expected to be at a loss of over Rs 31,600 crores of revenue this year. India’s aviation sector will witness the loss of more than Rs 8,070 in the quarter time this year. The primary reason for this loss is that international and domestic flights are grounded.
The shutdown will be a nightmare for the employees across these sectors as well. The National Restaurants Association of India has warned the loss of jobs to over 12-20% employees out of 7.5 million employees in the restaurant business. This number counts up to 15.3 lakh people being unemployed.
The economic impact of the 2020 coronavirus epidemic in India has been largely disturbing. India’s growth in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2020 went down to 3.3% according to the Ministry of Statistics. On May, CRISIL announced that this will maybe be India’s wickedest recession since independence.
Particularly, Novel coronavirus, which causes COVID-19, has come at a time when the Indian economy is already low with quarterly GDP growth of just 4.4%.
Several people have decided to buy FMCG products in advance. This panic buying has augmented demand for the goods. Also, many OTT platforms have also seen an increase in subscriptions as most companies are offering work from home to their employees. But this is not all. Alternatively, tourism, aviation, automobile, apparel, gems and jewelry, and even pharmaceutical companies have started seeing a reduction in their business.

Let’s now take a look at how coronavirus is abolishing the vital industries in India:
• Aviation
The aviation industry desires to be on this list. With the outbreak of coronavirus in Wuhan and its spread from there to more than 167 countries, airlines have got bad news. Since the virus has only got into our country with people coming from abroad, the country has placed travel and visa limits. These limitations have led to fares crash by 40% on certain air routes. Numerous aviation companies, such as SpiceJet, GoAir, and Vistara, have postponed their international flights as a result of declining demands and fares.
As per global aviation consultancy, private domestic carriers are anticipated to suffer a loss of around Rs 4,460 crore in just a quarter. And for the national flag carrier, the projected loss is Rs 3,690 crore for the same period. This totals up to Rs 8,420 crore. These losses mainly are because of condensed flight schedules, new bookings, rescheduled flights, and large-scale cancellations.

• Hospitality
Limitations on travel have noticeably impacted the hospitality sector. According to the assessments by the hospitality sector, the hotel chains in India will share a loss of up to Rs. 463 crores. The coronavirus outbreak can lead to 19-21% of deterioration of occupancy and 14-16% drop in ADRs for the entire 2020. The hospitality sector is expected to be impacted by the cancellations of rooms and drop in the room rates.

• Tourism
Accounting for 10% of India’s GDP, the Tourism sector is also badly affected by the eruption of coronavirus. The rising visa restrictions and new travel advisory are important reasons for this. India has postponed visas from all countries to India which is also one of the main reasons for this. In a nutshell, India is seeing an all-time high drop in the number of tourists travelling to the country.
Therefore, there would be low numbers of foreign tourists in India as well. From luxury hotels in Udaipur to Goa and Kerala, the room rates in Indian hospitality have reduced to nearly 20%. As said above, the situation is even poorer in the aviation sector, where fares have crashed by 42%.

• Auto
With more people stocking FMCG which are necessities, they have stopped going to car dealerships. According to research, footfalls in dealerships have gone down by 43% in the mid of the month of March. This has led to a decline in sales of up to 72%. The automobile industry was preparing for the transition to BS-IV emission norms from April 1, 2020. But there are no buyers for these cars. The dealers asked for some relaxation for liquidating the stock, but the Supreme Court has refused.

• Apparel
The value chain in the apparel industry exploded due to disturbance in exports and imports. India exported garments around $16.4 billion in 2019. Remarkably, the apparel sector exports contribute nearly 43% to India’s textiles exports. It is also one of the biggest employment providers employing around 128 lakh workers. Meaningfully. 68-72% employed people are women.
But the rising restrictions due to coronavirus is expected to take a toll on export and import of raw material. Moreover, buyers too, are staying away from shops to avoid community transmission of the disease. So, suppliers planning to familiarise summer collections find it hard to get customers. This had put pressure on the Indian apparel industry.

• Pharmaceuticals
The Indian Pharmaceutical industry was primarily facing troubles in importing material from China. Well, this problem is solved now. However, the uncertainties on the exports front have grown, particularly in the Europe and US market. There are travel limitations between the US and Europe, which amplify the problem.
The inventory turnover in India is only marginally down. However, sufficient stocks categories are facing problems for more than a month now. Industry bodies have ruled out the rise in the prices of the medicines as they are governed by price control.

• Gems & Jewellery
Buyers are not going to any retail stores, which has led to a decline in the retail sales of gems and jewellery to over 82%. On the export front, this industry also fears the loss of up to 52.5% amid stringent government restrictions.
• Fast Moving Consumer Goods
Different any other sector in India, the FMCG sector is expected to gain from the present situation. People are buying extra stuff for their house, which has led to augmented consumption of the products across the country. People are gathering daily food items, such as rice, curd, milk, lentils, oils, etc. and personal care products, such as hand wash, soaps, and sanitizers are in great demand these days.
Online inventory grocery stores have also seen a huge influx of consumers as they are avoiding the traditional brick-and-mortar way of buying. E-commerce stores are also complaining of running out of stock necessities such as hand sanitizers and hand wash. All of this has led to a rise in the production of the goods to keep up with the demand.

OTT Platforms
As most corporations have announced work from home, OTT platforms have seen an increase in demand and subscription. The government has shut down multiplexes which have also subsidised towards the increase in the demand for OTT platforms. As most of the Indian states have announced lockdown, this tendency is only anticipated to pick up. However, providing new content on these platforms would be a problem.

The cases of coronavirus are frequently increasing in India. Most states have announced lockdown, and the government has detained the borders as well. It appears like the situation is not going to change any soon. The Indian economy is expected to suffer for a long time as even once the situation is controlled, it will take a long time for everything to come normal.
The impact of coronavirus pandemic on India has been largely disruptive in terms of economic activity as well as a loss of human lives. Almost all the sectors have been adversely affected as domestic demand and exports sharply plummeted with some notable exceptions where high growth was observed. Although the COVID-19 pandemic has triggered one of the worst jobs crises since the Great Depression. There is a real danger that the crisis will increase poverty and widen inequalities, with the impact felt for years to come.
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